Are you tired of losing money in cricket betting? Then, you are in right place. If you are into betting, you’ve probably heard about ‘value bet’. So, we came up with this blog to guide you through it.
We will learn:
- What are value bets?
- Why is this betting system worth noting?
- What does value betting on cricket odds refer to?
So, let’s get started.
First, What is Value Betting?
A value betting is exactly what it sounds like, i.e, A “bet” which offers good value. It is the easiest way to make money on cricket. It is a form of betting is primarily based on higher-value offered by the odds.
There is not only beneficial for the bettors but also the bookmakers.
Let us take an example to explain:
A coin flip only has two odds:
If a bookmaker offers 50-50 value for both odds, he won’t make as many profits.
Alternatively, if he offers a value of
70 on heads
30 on tails
Then, people are most likely to bet on heads to get more value- hence the profit for the bookie.
Let’s take another example of dice:
Imagine you roll a regular, six-sided die.
The odds of it landing on either a 1, 2 or 3 is 50%, and the odds of it landing on 4, 5 or 6 is also 50%.
If you were receiving true odds on your bet, you would get even odds on either of the two outcomes.
But what about if a bookie has made a mistake?
Let’s say, they offered 1.95 on 1, 2 or 3 and 2.05 on 4, 5 or 6.
The true decimal odds of either outcome is 2.00.
To find this, we simply take the total percentage (100) and divide it by the odds of the event happening (50).
Therefore, anything above 2.00 is a value bet – so we should bet on the 4, 5 or 6 at odds of 2.05.
But how can you calculate the implied probability of the odds?
The probability of an odds is 100/the odds.
Let’s take some examples:
- An odds of 2 means that the odds of winning amount to 50%. Why? Because 100/2 = 50.
- An odd of 2.4 has a higher payout, but means that the probability of winning is lower: 41.6% because 100/2,4 = 41,6.
So, How do identify value bets?
Value betting is a skill that takes time to develop. What you should do to spot value bets is as follows:
It’s crucial to first focus on one area if you’re new to the betting world. By focusing solely on one sports league or competition. You will be able to determine the value of your bets. Always place your bets on things you are certain of, rather than anything else.
Without seeing any bookmaker’s odds, you might need to set your odds and see how it functions. Consider yourself to be the bookmaker as you think. You place bets with which you are not satisfied.
Long-term, this task is very beneficial. Additionally, keep in mind that since it is a betting market, odds are also determined by popular opinion. You should become more aware of this way of thinking and its connection.
Review your results at the end of the day to see if you were successful in calculating them correctly. Never overestimate your abilities, and never stop learning.
You could also seek the assistance of tipsters, but make sure they are trustworthy and do not overcharge you. There is also some value betting software on the market.
How do we know if cricket odds represent value?
Consider an example of odds. It is offering the following odds on a Twenty20 cricket match between New Zealand and India at a neutral venue:
- New Zealand – 2.75
- India – 1.49
Can we use the value betting theory to justify betting on either team?
To begin, we must rely on our experience and judgement, which are supported by statistics:
- Results from the past.
- News from the team.
- Pitch situation.
- Weather forecast.
Let’s say we think New Zealand have a 40% chance of winning and India a 60% chance.
Our percentage totals will always add up to 100%.
How To Calculate Value Bets?
This is how we calculate a value bet:
- Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1
- Value = 1.05 – 1
- If the value is greater than 0, then we have found a value bet
- So in our example, do we have a value bet?
- Value = 0.05
Let’s understand probabilities:
- Implied Probability = 1 / decimal odds
- So if we use our coin toss example, the implied probability for the odds of 2.10.
- Implied Probability = 1 / 2.101
- Implied Probability = 47.62%
Now, What Types of Value Bets?
Value bets come in a variety of forms depending on the betting market they are placed in.
You must be familiar with the various value bet types and what they entail to better comprehend this betting strategy.
We have explained each type below:
Bets on the Favorites:
A favourite is a team that is expected to win a specific event. As a result, most favourites frequently have lower odds than underdogs.
When it comes to value betting strategy, calculations show that the favourites have a much higher chance of winning than the bookie indicates.
Then, You will find value bets on the favourites.
Underdogs are always thought to be the weaker teams, with a low chance of winning the game. This explains why they always have a better chance.
However, there are times when underdogs have a much higher chance of losing the match than the bookmaker’s odds indicate. In this case, you have value bets on underdogs.
So all you have to do is bet on the underdog.
Another type of value bet is a tie bet or a draw bet. This is where the operator assumes the likelihood of two teams tying. It is significantly lower than your true probability estimates.
As a result, use the information to your advantage and place tie bets.
When not to use the value bet strategy?
If you like the idea of value betting, you might be working on formulas or making your predictions. However, keep in mind that there are some situations in which value betting should be avoided.
These rules will become clear to you over time. It’s always a good idea to remember them. They are as follows:
We have listed down some Tips and Tricks
Scan Markets for Profitable Bets – Do a Bet Analysis:
It is necessary to search markets for profitable bets. It is usually the only way to enjoy better long-term payouts. Before settling on a betting market, always conduct a thorough bet analysis.
The Probability of An Outcome Is Higher than Expected by The Bookmaker – Do a Value Bet Calculation:
Performing a correct value bet calculation, you will notice that the probability of an outcome is slightly higher than that expected by the bookmaker.
Use Betting Tools to Find Value Bets:
Finding value bets in various markets is not always easy. Even if you master the formula for manually locating value bets, you will quickly realise that it is time-consuming. Having said that, think about using betting tools to find value bets. Instead of doing manual calculations, you could use value betting software.