Expected value (EV) is a simple concept that can be applied to a wide variety of situations. In gambling, EV is used to determine how much money you can expect to win or lose in a given situation. If the coin is fair, your EV for each flip is 0.50 (you have a 50% chance of winning). If you bet $1 on each flip, you can expect to lose $0.50 on average.
Now, let’s say you’re playing a game where you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning $10. Your EV for this game is 3 * ($10) – ($10) = $20. This means that, on average, you’ll make a profit of $20 every time you play this game. You can use EV to make profitable bets in any situation where you know the odds of winning and the payout. In this article, we’ll show you how to use EV to make money betting on sports.
What Is Sports Betting Expected Value?
Sports betting expected value is the average amount that a bettor can expect to win or lose on any given bet. For example, if a bettor bets $100 on a football game and the odds of winning are 50%, the bettor can expect to win $50 on average. If the odds of winning are only 40%, the bettor can expect to lose $60 on average.
To calculate expected value, simply multiply the probability of winning by the amount you stand to win, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you stand to lose. In our football example, that would be (.5 x $50) – (.5 x $100), or $0. So, in this case, the expected value of this bet is zero. Anything less than zero is generally considered a bad bet.
Of course, it’s important to remember that expected value is just an average; it doesn’t guarantee that you’ll actually win or lose any particular bet. But over time, if you’re making a lot of bets with positive expected values, you should come out ahead in the long run.
Why is Expected Value Important for Sports Bettors?
Expected value is the average amount that a bettor can expect to win or lose on a given bet. It is important for sports bettors because it allows them to calculate whether a bet is worth making based on the odds and their own personal risk tolerance.
For example, let’s say you’re considering betting on a football game where the team you want to bet on is a 3-point favorite. The moneyline odds for this game are -150, meaning you would need to wager $150 to win $100. Based on these odds, the expected value of this bet is -$10 ((3 x $150) – $100). This means that, on average, you would lose $10 if you made this bet 10 times.
Now, let’s say you’re considering betting on a different football game where the team you want to bet on is a 7-point favorite. The moneyline odds for this game are -350, meaning you would need to wager $350 to win $100. Based on these odds, the expected value of this bet is -$30 ((7 x $350) – $100). This means that, on average, you would lose $30 if you made this bet 10 times.
So, which bet should you make? Well, it depends on your risk tolerance. If you’re willing to lose more money in the long run in exchange for a chance at a bigger payout (the 3-
What Does a Bet With a Positive Expected Value Look Like?
When you place a bet with positive expected value, you are essentially placing a wager that is expected to pay out more than it costs to make. In other words, your expected return on investment (ROI) is positive.
For example, let’s say you’re flipping a coin and the odds of heads are 50%. If you bet $1 on heads, then your expected value would be $0.50 (you would expect to win $0.50 half the time). However, if the payout for heads was $2, then your expected value would be $1 ($2 x 0.50 = $1). In this case, you would be placing a bet with positive expected value because your expected ROI is 100% ($1/$0.50).
Of course, nothing in life is guaranteed and there is always risk involved when placing bets. However, over the long run, if you only place bets with positive expected value, then you will be profitable in the end.
Conclusion
If you’re looking to make a profit betting, then expected value is a key concept that you need to understand. Put simply, expected value is the average amount of money that you can expect to win or lose on a bet. To calculate expected value, you need to first determine the probability of winning and losing for each possible outcome. Once you have that information, you can then multiply the probability by the amount of money won or lost for each outcome.
The sum of all those outcomes will give you the EV for the bet. For example, let’s say you’re considering a bet where you have a 50% chance of winning $100 and a 50% chance of losing $50. The expected value of this bet would be:(0.5 x $100) + (0.5 x -$50) = $25. As you can see, the expected value is positive; which means that this is a bet worth taking from a profit perspective. Of course, there’s no guarantee that you will actually win the bet; but over time, bets with positive expected values will tend to be profitable in the long run.
So if you’re looking to make money betting, keep an eye out for bets with positive expected values. By doing so, you’ll give yourself an edge in the long run and increase your chances of coming out ahead!
